Lung cancer rates, which have fallen by a fifth over the last 20 years, are set to continue heading downwards, a study has shown.

Cancer Research UK cites a fall in smokers due to recent bans on tobacco advertising and smoking in public places as driving down the overall rate of lung cancer from 50 to 40 cases per 100,000 in the UK by 2024.

However, longer life expectancy and the delay between smoking and the onset of lung cancer mean cases in Britain will rise from 38,500 to 41,600 during the same period.

Nine out of ten cases of lung cancer, the second-most common form of cancer in Britain, are caused by smoking, while one in five people smoke.

"These predictions are based on what we know to date about the current figures and trends for lung cancer," said Professor Max Parkin, the report's co-author.

"We can see that lung cancer rates should continue to drop but the number of cases will increase."

Prof Parkin added that a peak in the number of female smokers in the late 1970s will see the anticipated rise in lung cancer cases be driven by women.

"Lung cancer is unique in that we can track the reduction in cases with a reduction in the number of people exposed to a specific product - cigarette smoke," he added. "As fewer people smoke we should see a lower rate of the disease."

Jean King, Cancer Research UK's director of tobacco control said despite fewer people smoking it still remained imperative to "protect future generations from this scourge".

"We want to see tobacco products put out of sight and out of mind in the upcoming tobacco control legislation," she explained.

"We would like a commitment from the government to introduce a comprehensive and well funded tobacco control strategy - one that stops young people from beginning an addiction that kills half of all long term smokers, and fully supports smokers to quit."


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